@Article{AndradeMuCaLoBiBe:2012:AvMuFr,
               author = "Andrade, Kelen Martins and Muller, Gabriela Viviana and 
                         Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A. and Long, Maria Elena F and Bidegain, 
                         Mario and Berri, Guillermo",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de mudan{\c{c}}as na frequ{\^e}ncia de 
                         sistemas frontais sobre o sul da am{\'e}rica do sul em 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es do clima futuro",
              journal = "Meteorologica",
                 year = "2012",
               volume = "37",
               number = "1",
                pages = "15--26",
             keywords = "sistemas frontais, clima futuro, Am{\'e}rica do Sul, frontal 
                         systems, climate change, South America.",
             abstract = "A frequ{\^e}ncia de sistemas frontais sobre o sul da Am{\'e}rica 
                         do Sul identificada na rean{\'a}lise do NCEP/NCAR {\'e} 
                         comparada com as simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es dos modelos GFDL e Hadley 
                         e projetadas no clima futuro. As an{\'a}lises para identificar 
                         casos de sistemas frontais foram feitas em tr{\^e}s regi{\~o}es 
                         que cobrem {\'a}reas do Brasil, Uruguai, Paraguai e Argentina. 
                         Esta an{\'a}lise foi realizada com o fim de investigar as 
                         caracter{\'{\i}}sticas de eventos extremos no clima presente e 
                         em proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es do clima futuro. Para o clima presente 
                         observou-se que os modelos analisados simularam bem as 
                         caracter{\'{\i}}sticas sin{\'o}ticas dos sistemas frontais. No 
                         entanto, quando se compara a frequ{\^e}ncia de ocorr{\^e}ncia 
                         das frentes entre a rean{\'a}lise e as simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es, 
                         observa-se que os modelos GFDL e Hadley superestimam seu 
                         n{\'u}mero e apenas o GFDL consegue reproduzir a variabilidade 
                         mensal. O modelo Hadley superestima ainda mais em 
                         rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao NCEP e GFDL no clima presente. A 
                         tend{\^e}ncia positiva no n{\'u}mero de frentes observada na 
                         {\'a}rea 3 (65ºW-60ºW, 33ºS-38ºS) nos resultados da 
                         rean{\'a}lise n{\~a}o {\'e} simulada pelos modelos. Quando os 
                         casos mais intensos s{\~a}o selecionados, o modelo GFDL {\'e} o 
                         que superestima mais o n{\'u}mero de sistemas frontais. Os dois 
                         modelos indicam aumento na frequ{\^e}ncia de sistemas frontais no 
                         futuro nas tr{\^e}s {\'a}reas, por{\'e}m em menor 
                         propor{\c{c}}{\~a}o na {\'a}rea 3. ABSTRACT: The frequency of 
                         frontal systems reaching the south of South America is compared 
                         with reanalysis NCEP/NCAR and results of GFDL and Hadley models 
                         for the future climate. Three regions were analyzed to identify 
                         the frontal systems, in areas of Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and 
                         Argentina. The following criteria were used: increase of sea 
                         surface pressure, reduction of the temperature and change of the 
                         meridional wind at 850hPa, in two consecutive days. Selected cases 
                         with temperature drop above five degrees, considered the most 
                         intense, were also analyzed. For the present climate it was 
                         observed that the models simulated well the synoptic 
                         characteristics of frontal systems. However, when comparing the 
                         frequency of frontal occurrence between reanalysis data and models 
                         simulations, the GFDL and Hadley models overestimated their 
                         numbers. The Hadley model overestimates further more than the NCEP 
                         and GFDL in present climate. The positive trend observed in area 3 
                         (65ºW-60ºW, 33ºS-38ºS) from NCEP reanalysis is not simulated by 
                         the models. When the most intense systems are selected, the GFDL 
                         model shows higher overestimation in number of frontal systems. 
                         Both models indicate an increase of frontal systems frequency in 
                         future in the three areas, although less in area 3.",
                 issn = "1850-468X and 0325-187X",
                label = "lattes: 0652826426407936 1 AndradeMuCaLoBiBe:2012:AVMUFR",
             language = "pt",
                  url = "http://www.cenamet.org.ar/archivos/Vol37-Nro1-2012.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "30 abr. 2024"
}